List of target seats in the 2015 United Kingdom general election
This article describes the likely or potential target seats at the United Kingdom general election of 2015 that was held on 7 May 2015.
In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election.[1] UKIP's list of 12 target seats was reported in August 2014,[2] and others external to UKIP have highlighted seats where UKIP may be strongest.[3] A list of Conservative non-target seats was deduced in February 2015.[4] The Green Party of England & Wales describe having 12 target constituencies, including their one current seat.[5][6]
Below are the most marginal seats listed by the party in second for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources. Opinion polling in individual constituencies is also another indicator for possible target seats.
List by party
Conservative
Conservative target seats[7] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2010 | Swing required | Winning party 2015 | ||
1 | Hampstead and Kilburn | Labour | 0.04% | Labour | ||
2 | Bolton West | Labour | 0.10% | Conservative | ||
3 | Solihull | Liberal Democrats | 0.16% | Conservative | ||
4 | Southampton Itchen | Labour | 0.22% | Conservative | ||
5 | Mid Dorset and North Poole | Liberal Democrats | 0.29% | Conservative | ||
6 | Wirral South | Labour | 0.66% | Labour | ||
7 | Derby North | Labour | 0.68% | Conservative | ||
8 | Wells | Liberal Democrats | 0.72% | Conservative | ||
9 | Dudley North | Labour | 0.84% | Labour | ||
10 | Great Grimsby | Labour | 1.08% | Labour | ||
11 | Morley and Outwood | Labour | 1.13% | Conservative | ||
12 | Telford | Labour | 1.19% | Conservative | ||
13 | Walsall North | Labour | 1.37% | Labour | ||
14 | St Austell and Newquay | Liberal Democrats | 1.39% | Conservative | ||
15 | Somerton and Frome | Liberal Democrats | 1.50% | Conservative | ||
16 | Birmingham Edgbaston | Labour | 1.54% | Labour | ||
17 | Sutton and Cheam | Liberal Democrats | 1.66% | Conservative | ||
18 | Halifax | Labour | 1.69% | Labour | ||
19 | Newcastle-under-Lyme | Labour | 1.80% | Labour | ||
20 | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Labour | 1.82% | Labour | ||
21 | Wakefield | Labour | 1.82% | Labour | ||
22 | St. Ives | Liberal Democrats | 1.87% | Conservative | ||
23 | Plymouth Moor View | Labour | 1.91% | Conservative | ||
24 | Gedling | Labour | 1.93% | Labour | ||
25 | Eltham | Labour | 1.98% | Labour | ||
26 | Walsall South | Labour | 2.15% | Labour | ||
27 | Nottingham South | Labour | 2.17% | Labour |
Labour
Labour target seats[8] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2010 | Swing required | Winning party 2015 | ||
1 | North Warwickshire | Conservative | 0.05% | Conservative | ||
2 | Thurrock | Conservative | 0.10% | Conservative | ||
3 | Hendon | Conservative | 0.12% | Conservative | ||
4 | Cardiff North | Conservative | 0.20% | Conservative | ||
5 | Sherwood | Conservative | 0.22% | Conservative | ||
6 | Norwich South | Liberal Democrats | 0.32% | Labour | ||
7 | Stockton South | Conservative | 0.33% | Conservative | ||
8 | Broxtowe | Conservative | 0.37% | Conservative | ||
9 | Lancaster and Fleetwood | Conservative | 0.39% | Labour | ||
10 | Bradford East | Liberal Democrats | 0.45% | Labour | ||
11 | Amber Valley | Conservative | 0.58% | Conservative | ||
12 | Waveney | Conservative | 0.75% | Conservative | ||
13 | Wolverhampton South West | Conservative | 0.85% | Labour | ||
14 | Morecambe and Lunesdale | Conservative | 1.00% | Conservative | ||
15 | Carlisle | Conservative | 1.01% | Conservative | ||
16 | Stroud | Conservative | 1.12% | Conservative | ||
17 | Weaver Vale | Conservative | 1.13% | Conservative | ||
18 | Lincoln | Conservative | 1.16% | Conservative | ||
19 | Brighton Pavilion | Green | 1.21% | Green | ||
20 | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Conservative | 1.31% | Conservative | ||
21 | Dewsbury | Conservative | 1.41% | Labour | ||
22 | Warrington South | Conservative | 1.42% | Conservative | ||
23 | Brent Central | Liberal Democrats | 1.48% | Labour | ||
24 | Bedford | Conservative | 1.50% | Conservative | ||
25 | Brighton Kemptown | Conservative | 1.56% | Conservative | ||
26 | Pudsey | Conservative | 1.69% | Conservative | ||
27 | Brentford and Isleworth) | Conservative | 1.82% | Labour |
Liberal Democrats
Liberal Democrats target seats[9] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2010 | Swing required | Winning party 2015 | ||
1 | Camborne and Redruth | Conservative | 0.08% | Conservative | ||
2 | Oldham East and Saddleworth[note 1] | Labour | 0.12% | Labour | ||
3 | Oxford West and Abingdon | Conservative | 0.16% | Conservative | ||
4 | Ashfield | Labour | 0.20% | Labour | ||
5 | Sheffield Central | Labour | 0.20% | Labour | ||
6 | Edinburgh South | Labour | 0.36% | Labour | ||
7 | Truro and Falmouth | Conservative | 0.45% | Conservative | ||
8 | Newton Abbot | Conservative | 0.55% | Conservative | ||
9 | Chesterfield | Labour | 0.60% | Labour | ||
10 | Swansea West | Labour | 0.71% | Labour | ||
11 | Kingston upon Hull North | Labour | 0.96% | Labour | ||
12 | Rochdale | Labour | 0.97% | Labour | ||
13 | Harrogate and Knaresborough | Conservative | 0.98% | Conservative | ||
14 | Watford | Conservative | 1.29% | Conservative | ||
15 | Hampstead and Kilburn | Labour | 1.51% | Labour | ||
16 | Montgomeryshire | Conservative | 1.75% | Conservative | ||
17 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Labour | 1.82% | SNP | ||
18 | St. Albans | Conservative | 2.19% | Conservative | ||
19 | Newport East | Labour | 2.39% | Labour | ||
20 | Weston-super-Mare | Conservative | 2.56% | Conservative | ||
21 | Hereford and Herefordshire South | Conservative | 2.57% | Conservative | ||
22 | Torridge and West Devon | Conservative | 2.68% | Conservative | ||
23 | Winchester | Conservative | 2.73% | Conservative | ||
24 | Northampton North | Conservative | 3.09% | Conservative | ||
25 | South East Cornwall | Conservative | 3.25% | Conservative | ||
26 | Bristol North West | Conservative | 3.25% | Conservative | ||
27 | City of Durham | Labour | 3.32% | Labour |
SNP
SNP target seats | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2010 | Swing required | Winning party 2015 | ||
1 | Ochil and South Perthshire | Labour | 5.14% | SNP |
Plaid Cymru
Plaid Cymru target seats | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2010 | Swing required | Winning party 2015 | ||||
1 | Ynys Môn | Labour | 3.55% | Labour | Labour | Labour |
Green Party
Green Party target seats | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2010 | Swing required | Winning party 2015 | ||||
1 | Norwich South | Liberal Democrats | 7.20% | Labour | Labour | Labour |
Respect Party
Respect Party target seats | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2010 | Swing required | Winning party 2015 | ||||
1 | Birmingham Hall Green | Labour | 3.9% | Labour | Labour | Labour |
Northern Ireland
Sinn Féin targets | Swing required | SDLP targets | Swing required | DUP targets | Swing required | Alliance targets | Swing required | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Belfast North (DUP) | 3.01% | Newry and Armagh (SF) | 9.3% | Belfast East (Alliance) | 2.22% | Belfast South (SDLP) | 15.00% |
Notes
- ^ As compared to the 2010 general election result, not the 2011 by-election result.
References
- ^ "List of Labour's 106 target seats for 2015". Politicshome.com. Archived from the original on 19 January 2013. Retrieved 3 May 2013.
- ^ Holehouse, Matthew (26 August 2014). "Ukip to target Tory ministers' seats". Telegraph.co.uk.
- ^ Roberts, Marcus. "REVOLT ON THE LEFT Labour's UKIP problem and how it can be overcome" (PDF). Fabian Society.
- ^ "Leaked list shows Tories are not competing in five likely marginals". May2015: 2015 General Election Guide. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
- ^ "Will you pledge to vote Green?". Archived from the original on 9 March 2015. Retrieved 7 March 2015.
- ^ "The Granola Pact: is there a rift between Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas?". Retrieved 7 March 2015.
- ^ "CONSERVATIVE TARGET SEATS". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.
- ^ "Labour Targets". ukpollingreport.co.uk.
- ^ "LIBERAL DEMOCRAT TARGET SEATS". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 22 September 2013.
See also
- List of target seats in the 2024 United Kingdom general election
- List of target seats in the 2019 United Kingdom general election
- List of target seats in the 2017 United Kingdom general election
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