December 2021 Russian ultimatum to NATO

On 17 December 2021, during the prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia published a list of demands for security guarantees in the form of two draft treaties with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The proposals included a ban on Ukraine and other ex-Soviet countries from joining NATO, and a roll-back in their deployments of troops and weapons in Central and Eastern Europe. The demands, issued during a period of high tensions during which about 100,000 Russian troops were massed on Ukraine's borders, were widely seen as an ultimatum and attempt by Russia to exert pressure and influence on the Western countries, as a sign of its dissatisfaction and distrust with the existing security architecture in Europe. The draft treaties were rejected by the U.S. and NATO, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine followed two months later on 24 February 2022.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War in 1991, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance including the United States and its allies in Europe, expanded its membership eastward, incorporating several former Warsaw Pact countries and former republics of the Soviet Union.^[1] This expansion has been a point of contention for Russia, which views it as a breach of assurances made by Western leaders in the early 1990s, and as a strategic encirclement aimed at undermining its security.^[2] The annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and subsequent war in the Donbas marked the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, leading to diplomatic fallout and the imposition of economic sanctions by Western nations.^[1]

In the months leading up to December 2021, Russia significantly increased its military presence along its border with Ukraine, massing about 100,000 troops.^[3] This build-up included large-scale military exercises, and raised international concern about a potential full-scale invasion of the country. The military maneuvering was seen as both a show of strength by Russia, and as a strategic pressure tactic aimed at compelling Western concessions.^[4]

On 15 December 2021, Russian president Vladimir Putin submitted "specific proposals" on Russia's security guarantees to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried.^[5] Two days later, on 17 December, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published the demands in the form of two draft treaties with NATO and the U.S., proposing limits on their influence and activities in Europe.^[6] Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that "The line pursued by the United States and NATO over recent years to aggressively escalate the security situation is absolutely unacceptable and extremely dangerous". Ryabkov also stated that Russia was ready to begin negotiations as soon as 18 December, and suggested Geneva as a possible venue.^[7]

The first draft treaty, titled "Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization",^[8] included the following provisions:

• that NATO members commit to no further enlargement of the alliance, including in particular to Ukraine
• that NATO deploy no forces or weapons in countries that joined the alliance after May 1997
• a ban on deployment of intermediate-range missiles in areas where they could reach the other side's territory
• a ban on any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, or Central Asia
• language on consultative mechanisms, such as the NATO-Russia Council, and the establishment of a hotline^[9]

The second, titled "Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees",^[10] included the following:

• a requirement that both countries "not implement security measures … that could undermine core security interests of the other Party"
• a requirement that the United States undertake to prevent further NATO enlargement
• a ban on deployment of U.S. intermediate-range missiles in Europe
• limits on the ability of heavy bombers and surface warships to operate in and over international waters
• a requirement that both side's nuclear weapons only be deployed on national territory^[9]

The primary demand from Russia to halt NATO's eastward expansion was rejected by the U.S. and NATO, which argued that Russia should not have a veto on further expansion of NATO and that the alliance had the right to decide its own military posture, defending its open door policy as a fundamental alliance principle.^[11] In response to the draft treaties, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that any dialogue with Russia "would also need to address NATO's concerns about Russia's actions, be based on core principles and documents of European security, and take place in consultation with NATO's European partners, such as Ukraine". U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated that the U.S. was committed to the "principle of nothing about you without you" in shaping its European policy.^[12] Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Ukraine had an "exclusive sovereign right" to run its foreign policy, and only it and NATO could determine the relationship between them, including the question of its potential membership.^[11]

Some Western political analysts suggested Russia was knowingly presenting unrealistic demands to provide a diplomatic distraction while maintaining military pressure on Ukraine, with Michael Kofman calling them a "smokescreen" and Sam Greene calling them a "declaration" rather than a treaty.^[11]

According to the New York Times, high-level U.S. officials conducted more than 180 meetings with their European counterparts in the weeks after the Russian demands. The U.S. and NATO responses to the proposals were drafted together, and approved by U.S. president Joe Biden and Ukraine.^[13]

On 26 January 2022, the U.S. and NATO issued their formal responses to Russia, in which they rejected demands that Ukraine never join NATO and that the alliance withdraw its forces from Eastern Europe. The specific areas indicated for negotiation with Russia were a potential revival of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (which the U.S. had withdrawn from in 2019) and new mutual rules limiting the size and locations of military exercises.^[13]

No formal bilateral talks on the security demands were held before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began two months later on 24 February 2022.

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• Soviet ultimatum to Romania
• Soviet ultimatum to Lithuania