Central England temperature dataset, 1659 to 2014.
The Central England Temperature (CET) record is a meteorological dataset originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953 and subsequently extended and updated in 1974, following many decades of painstaking work. The monthly mean surface air temperatures, for the Midlands region of England, are given (in degrees Celsius) from the year 1659 to the present.
This record represents the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence. It is a valuable dataset for meteorologists and climate scientists. It is monthly from 1659, and a daily version has been produced from 1772. The monthly means from November 1722 onwards are given to a precision of 0.1 °C. The earliest years of the series, from 1659 to October 1722 inclusive, for the most part only have monthly means given to the nearest degree or half a degree, though there is a small 'window' of 0.1 degree precision from 1699 to 1706 inclusive. This reflects the number, accuracy, reliability and geographical spread of the temperature records that were available for the years in question.
Data quality
Although best efforts have been made by Manley and subsequent researchers to quality control the series, there are data problems in the early years, with some non-instrumental data used. These problems account for the lower precision to which the early monthly means were quoted by Manley. Parker et al. (1992)[1] addressed this by not using data prior to 1772, since their daily series required more accurate data than did the original series of monthly means. Before 1722, instrumental records do not overlap and Manley used a non-instrumental series from Utrecht compiled by Labrijn (1945), to make the monthly central England temperature (CET) series complete.
For a period early in the 21st century there were two versions of the series: the "official" version maintained by the Hadley Centre in Exeter, and a version that was maintained by the late Philip Eden which he argued was more consistent with the series as originally compiled by Manley.[2]
The warmest year on record was recorded in 2022, with an average temperature of 11.15 degrees Celsius. This beat the previous 2014 record by 0.2 degrees and was almost 2 degrees over the 1961-1990 average
Trends revealed by the series
CET and its 10-year and 30-year moving averages (orange and black traces, respectively).[3]
This stacked warming stripes graphic—technically a two-dimensional heat map—organizes CETs by month (vertically) and by year (horizontally).[4]
During the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, a cool period which coincided with cool winters and generally cool summers, the temperatures fluctuated widely but with little trend. From 1910, temperatures increased until about 1950, when they flattened before a sharp rising trend began in about 1975. The warmest decade on record is the 2010s (2011–2020) with a mean temperature of 10.40 °C (50.72 °F).[5][a]
Both the general warming trend[6] and the hottest year on record at the time, 2014,[7] have been attributed to human-caused climate change using observational and climate model-based techniques. This record was subsequently broken in 2022, when a mean CET of 11.15 C was recorded, 1.68 degrees above the 1961-90 average and breaking the 2014 record by nearly 0.2 Celsius.
Extremes
Taking the 364-year period for the series as a whole:
Hottest
Period
Record Mean
Year
Year
11.1 °C (52.0 °F)
2022, 2023[8][9]
Spring (March–May)
10.6 °C (51.1 °F)
2024
Summer (June–August)
17.7 °C (63.9 °F)
1976
Autumn (September–November)
12.6 °C (54.7 °F)
2006
Winter (December–February)
6.8 °C (44.2 °F)
2015/2016
January
7.5 °C (45.5 °F)
1916
February
7.9 °C (46.2 °F)
1779
March
9.2 °C (48.6 °F)
1957
April
11.8 °C (53.2 °F)
2011
May
15.1 °C (59.2 °F)
1833
June
18.2 °C (64.8 °F)
1846
July
19.8 °C (67.6 °F)
2006
August
19.1 °C (66.4 °F)
1995
September
17.0 °C (62.6 °F)
2023
October
13.3 °C (55.9 °F)
2001
November
9.9 °C (49.8 °F)
1994
December
9.6 °C (49.3 °F)
2015
Coldest
Period
Record Mean
Year
Year
6.9 °C (44.4 °F)
1740
Spring (March–May)
5.6 °C (42.1 °F)
1837
Summer (June–August)
13.1 °C (55.6 °F)
1725
Autumn (September–November)
7.5 °C (45.5 °F)
1676, 1740, 1786
Winter (December–February)
−1.2 °C (29.8 °F)
1683/1684
January
−3.1 °C (26.4 °F)
1795
February
−1.9 °C (28.6 °F)
1947
March
1.0 °C (33.8 °F)
1674
April
4.7 °C (40.5 °F)
1701 and 1837
May
8.5 °C (47.3 °F)
1698
June
11.5 °C (52.7 °F)
1675
July
13.4 °C (56.1 °F)
1816
August
12.9 °C (55.2 °F)
1912
September
10.5 °C (50.9 °F)
1674, 1675, 1694 and 1807
October
5.3 °C (41.5 °F)
1740
November
2.3 °C (36.1 °F)
1782
December
−0.8 °C (30.6 °F)
1890
Mean, maximum and minimum temperatures
Since 1878, the Central England temperature has recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures; its daily mean records began in 1772. The tables below show the record average max/min for each season and each calendar month since 1878.
Highest minimum
Period
Record Mean
Year
Year
7.2 °C (45.0 °F)
2006, 2014, 2023[10]
Spring (March–May)
6.8 °C (44.2 °F)
2024
Summer (June–August)
12.4 °C (54.3 °F)
2006
Autumn (September–November)
9.0 °C (48.2 °F)
2006
Winter (December–February)
3.8 °C (38.8 °F)
1934/35, 2006/07, 2015/16
January
5.2 °C (41.4 °F)
1916
February
4.8 °C (40.6 °F)
2024
March
5.6 °C (42.1 °F)
1957
April
6.7 °C (44.1 °F)
2011
May
9.9 °C (49.8 °F)
2024
June
11.7 °C (53.1 °F)
2017
July
14.0 °C (57.2 °F)
2006
August
14.0 °C (57.2 °F)
1997
September
12.9 °C (55.2 °F)
2006
October
10.2 °C (50.4 °F)
2001
November
7.4 °C (45.3 °F)
1994
December
6.9 °C (44.4 °F)
2015
Lowest minimum
Period
Record Mean
Year
Year
4.3 °C (39.7 °F)
1879[10]
Spring (March–May)
2.3 °C (36.1 °F)
1887[11]
Summer (June–August)
9.7 °C (49.5 °F)
1922
Autumn (September–November)
4.1 °C (39.4 °F)
1919
Winter (December–February)
−3.1 °C (26.4 °F)
1962/63
January
−4.8 °C (23.4 °F)
1963
February
−5.2 °C (22.6 °F)
1895
March
−2.0 °C (28.4 °F)
1883
April
1.2 °C (34.2 °F)
2021
May
4.7 °C (40.5 °F)
1885
June
7.9 °C (46.2 °F)
1916
July
9.8 °C (49.6 °F)
1919
August
9.3 °C (48.7 °F)
1885
September
6.6 °C (43.9 °F)
1986
October
3.2 °C (37.8 °F)
1919
November
−0.4 °C (31.3 °F)
1915
December
−3.8 °C (25.2 °F)
2010
Highest maximum
Period
Record Mean
Year
Year
15.3 °C (59.5 °F)
2022[12]
Spring (March–May)
15.7 °C (60.3 °F)
1893[13]
Summer (June–August)
23.4 °C (74.1 °F)
1976
Autumn (September–November)
16.1 °C (61.0 °F)
2006
Winter (December–February)
9.8 °C (49.6 °F)
2015/16
January
10.4 °C (50.7 °F)
1916
February
11.5 °C (52.7 °F)
2019
March
13.8 °C (56.8 °F)
1938
April
17.2 °C (63.0 °F)
2011
May
19.0 °C (66.2 °F)
1992
June
22.6 °C (72.7 °F)
2023
July
25.6 °C (78.1 °F)
2006
August
25.1 °C (77.2 °F)
1995
September
21.5 °C (70.7 °F)
2023
October
17.1 °C (62.8 °F)
1921
November
12.4 °C (54.3 °F)
2011
December
12.3 °C (54.1 °F)
2015
Lowest maximum
Period
Record Mean
Year
Year
10.5 °C (50.9 °F)
1879[12]
Spring (March–May)
10.1 °C (50.2 °F)
1879[13]
Summer (June–August)
17.0 °C (62.6 °F)
1879
Autumn (September–November)
11.1 °C (52.0 °F)
1887, 1896, 1952
Winter (December–February)
2.5 °C (36.5 °F)
1962/63
January
0.6 °C (33.1 °F)
1963
February
0.0 °C (32.0 °F)
1947
March
5.8 °C (42.4 °F)
1883, 1888, 2013
April
9.3 °C (48.7 °F)
1879
May
12.8 °C (55.0 °F)
1902
June
15.5 °C (59.9 °F)
1909, 1972
July
16.6 °C (61.9 °F)
1879
August
16.0 °C (60.8 °F)
1912
September
14.4 °C (57.9 °F)
1952
October
10.2 °C (50.4 °F)
1896
November
5.8 °C (42.4 °F)
1919
December
1.2 °C (34.2 °F)
1890
Daily records
Daily mean temperatures have been available since 1772, with max and min data available from 1878 onward. [14]
^Alternatively, if decades are measured from 00-09, the 2000s become the warmest decade on record, with a mean temperature of 10.39 °C (50.70 °F). However, the prevailing method of measuring decades is 01-00.
References
^Parker, D. E., T. P. Legg, and C. K. Folland, 1992: A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772-1991. Int J Climatol, 12, 317-342. [1]
^"Checking the CET". Archived from the original on 7 October 2012. Retrieved 13 August 2006.
^Data source: Met Office U.K. (31 July 2019). "mean CET ranked coldest to warmest from 1659 to 2019". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Archived from the original on 21 May 2019. Retrieved 31 July 2019.
^@iamreddave (16 June 2016). "England Temperatures Since 1659". Archived from the original on 7 September 2019. Retrieved 7 September 2019. ● Data source: Met Office U.K., Hadley Centre (archive).
^Karoly, D. J. and P. A. Stott (2006). "Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature". Atmospheric Science Letters. 7 (4): 81–85. Bibcode:2006AtScL...7...81K. doi:10.1002/asl.136. S2CID 121456744.
^King, A. D.; et al. (2015). "Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences". Environmental Research Letters. 10 (5): 054002. Bibcode:2015ERL....10e4002K. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002. hdl:1885/153330. S2CID 154632588.